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A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past
A study about the required post-Cold War military transformation which takes into account the changing nature of war and the experiences of past conflicts. By Anthony C. Zinni, Strategic Forum, US National Defense University, July 2001.
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF181/sf181.htm
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A Warning from Clausewitz on 4GW
William S. Lind alerts about the dangers for USA of being the only superpower. CounterPunch, March 2003.
http://www.counterpunch.org/lind03082003.html
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All Possible Wars? Towards a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025
Sam Tangredi presents a set of assumptions and possible scenarios about the future security environment for the next 25 years. National Defense University, USA. McNair Paper No. 63, November 2000.
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair63/m63cvr.html
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Battlefield of the Future - 21st Century Warfare Issues
Study on future principles of war, military affairs, air power, plus information and biological war. From the U.S. Air Force.
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/battle/bftoc.html
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Bury Cold War Mindset: Fourth Generation Warfare Rewrites Military Strategy
Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and narcotics traffickers.
http://www.cdi.org/mrp/4GW.cfm
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Changing the Paradigm of the War
A paper about the nature of fourth generation warfare and the form it may take in Middle East. By Steve Daskal, November 2003.
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/daskal_changing_paradigms.htm
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Chinese Views of Future Warfare
Collection of articles about doctrine of future types and causes of warfare, future threats of security environment, short-term future challenges for possible local war, and long-term future warfare from the point of view of several Chinese authors. Publisher: Institute for National Strategic Studies, US - National Defense University.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndu/chinview/chinacont.html
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Evolution of War
A slide presentation showing the past, present and future of the war.
http://www.defense-and-society.org/fcs/defense_death_spiral/5_evolution.htm
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Fourth Generation Warfare: How Tactics of the Weak Confound the Strong
Postulates that today's global environment is defined by the 4th Generation War reality, with nation-states confronting criminal enterprises, fanatical opportunists, and terrorists whose gang-like networks transcend national boundaries. All these actors often slip through the cracks of security, military, and legal bureaucracies. Opinion article by G.I. Wilson, John P. Sullivan, and Hal Kempfer, Military.Com, September 2003.
http://d-n-i.net/fcs/comments/c490.htm
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From The Military: Applying 4GW Theory to The Intelligence Community
The article states that the intelligence community is key to the 4th generation warfare, so it's important that they understand what they're looking for. By Myke Cole.
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/cole_lessons_from_the_military.htm
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Global Guerrillas: 4GW -- Fourth Generation Warfare
An overview of the key concepts by John Robb, May 2004.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/05/4gw_fourth_gene.html
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Historical Perspectives on Future War
Shows how thinking deeply about the future of war requires careful reflection on its past, by Robert F. Baumann, 1997.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/milreview/baumann-marapr97.htm
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Homeland Security: The New Role for Defense
Shows the change of US strategic vision of national and global security after September 11 attacks, by Steven J. Tomisek. Strategic Forum No.189, February 2002.
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF189/sf189.htm
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Information Warfare
Articles about information warfare, nanowar, and other future conflict scenarios from Plausible Futures Newsletter.
http://www.plausiblefutures.com/index.php?cat=6694a
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May the Smartest Machine Win: Warfare in the 21st Century
Article from Raymond Kurzweil on future methods of fighting, including pilotless planes and thinking machines. Published in 1993.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0248.html
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Military Role in Countering Terrorist Use of WMD
The article shows how the end of the Cold War created a new-world order and presented new challenges for future leaders, such as countering the ever growing terrorist threat. Accompanying this threat is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, now available to individuals, as well as groups and nations. Author: Lansing E. Dickinson, Counterproliferation Paper No. 1, USAF Counterproliferation Center, Air War College, 1999.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/dickinson.htm
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Nanotechnology and International Security
How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for Superconductivity Research, University of Maryland, 1997.
http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Papers/Gubrud/index.html
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Past and Future of Nuclear War
Transcript of a talk given at American University, April 2002, with edits.
http://www.ieer.org/comments/dsmt/auspeech.html
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Swarming - The Next Face of the Battle
Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation. Opinion article by J. Arquilla and D. Ronfeldt, Aviation Week & Space Technology, September 2003.
http://www.rand.org/commentary/100703AWST.html
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The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation
An article that intends to anticipate what the future conflicts will be like. Introduces the concept of fourth generation war. By William S. Lind, Keith Nightengale, John F. Schmitt, Joseph W. Sutton and Gary I. Wilson, published in Marine Corps Gazette, October 1989.
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm
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The Dangers of Warfare in a Media Age
The author alerts about the dangers of the contemporary media age, in which events across the world are instantly brought before vast international audiences, for example, that tomorrow’s wars could be at risk of being overly influenced by the views of spectator audiences, at the expense of the considerations that ought to guide policy-makers, such as the assessment of the national interest. By Roger Howard, April 2003.
http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/Vol2Issue16/vol2issue16howardpfv.html
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The Future of War and the American Military
Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think will be useful many years ahead. By, Stephen Peter Rosen, Harvard Magazine, May-June 2002.
http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050218.html
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The Kingdom of Chaos or What Hath the Great Subversive Wrought?
The article describes the state of chaos of the post-Cold War world, with a steady increase of entropy and anomie, and a crisis of former models of leadership. Also, analyzes the nature of future conflicts and the role of United States and Europe as key players within this new environment. Authors: Norman A. Bailey and Criton M. Zoakos, published by the Center for Hemispheric Studies Alexis de Tocqueville.
http://www.centrotocqueville.org.ar/htm/htm/nab/nb10050401in.htm
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The Network Is the Battlefield
The Pentagon's aim is to meld weapons systems and people into a whole, called network-centric warfare, that's greater than the sum of its parts. From Business Week Online, January 2003.
http://www.businessweek.com/print/technology/content/jan2003/tc2003017_2464.htm?tc&sub=03miltech
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The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons
A compilation of articles by several authors about how future wars are expected to be. Barry R. Schneider and Jim A. Davis, Editors, USAF Counterproliferation Center, April 2004.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/war_next_time/cover.htm
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Toward the 21st Century: Trends in Post-Cold War International Security
Addresses key changes since the Cold War ended, lessons, current problems and issues. Commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Defense, 1998.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/details.cfm?r_oID=6810&sid=C119C06DD2C2184ABE6A5EF90547BC05
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Violent Conflict in the 21st Century: Causes, Instruments, and Mitigation
Collection of essays including 'The New Evils of the 21st Century' by Robert D. Kaplan; 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Physical Heritage of the Cold War' by W.K.H. Panofsky and 'Group Loyalty and Ethnic Violence' by Donald L. Horowitz. [PDF]
http://www.amacad.org/publications/violent.aspx
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Watch on the West: War and Strategy in the 21st Century
Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002.
http://www.fpri.org/ww/0304.200202.black.warandstrategy21stcentury.html
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Welcome to the Postmodern Warfare Era
An anticipatory article by David Isenberg, October 2000.
http://www.speakout.com/activism/opinions/2973-1.html
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Will Special Ops Success Change the Face of War?
The role of U.S. special operations forces in future conflicts explained by a number of specialists. Author: Harold Kennedy, National Defense Magazine, Feb 2002.
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/issues/2002/Feb/Will_Special.htm
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